A guaranteed tool for success

A guaranteed tool for success exists, though not in the way most people imagine.

I have searched for such a thing for most of my life, and I doubt anyone can truly promise one. But there is an idea I discovered as a schoolboy that has stayed with me and shaped many of my biggest decisions. It came from a small book I picked up in the 11th grade, Martin Gardner's Mathematical Circus, and it taught me something surprisingly powerful about risk and commitment.

He described a simple game of chance.

Two players start with Rs 10 each (I think he mentioned pennies or pounds, but the denomination is immaterial).

Then they toss a coin. Whoever wins the toss gets Rs1 from the other.

At the beginning both have, both have exactly the same odds of eventually winning. But once the first toss is done, the symmetry breaks. Someone becomes stronger by a small margin, and the odds shift slightly in that person's favour.

Now imagine that after four tosses, 'A' wins all four.

'A' now has Rs14. 'B' has Rs6.

At this point it is clear that 'A' has a much higher chance of winning the entire game. This is the classic idea behind what mathematicians call the gambler's ruin: the player with the smaller stake is always more likely to be wiped out first.

But here is where I introduced a twist. What if one player limits how much he is willing to lose, while the other is willing to lose everything.

Imagine this variation.

'A' is willing to lose only Rs 2.

'B' is willing to lose everything

Who has the higher chance of ultimately winning?

Surprisingly (or not). it is 'B'.

The player who is willing to lose more can stay in the game longer, and the one who stays longer has more chances for the odds to turn.

This idea became a tool I used repeatedly in life. When choosing which goals are worth fighting for, I would ask myself, "How much am I willing to lose for this?" If I was willing to lose it all, the goal was worthy enough. And conversely, if the goal was truly worthy, I found that I was willing to lose it all in its pursuit. I realised that if I was willing to lose everything for a goal, I could not be defeated by someone who was not willing to lose everything.

Maybe, that was why the sea could not defeat me.

Not because I was stronger, but because there was nothing left that I was unwilling to lose.

In the end, people often underestimate how much staying power influences success and tilt the odds in their favour.